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Global Briefing May 25

US-Iran War Diplomacy, Turkey Crackdown, Ukraine Drone Campaign

The US-Iran war set the global agenda: rival Gulf states pressed Trump to accept a provisional peace deal Israel vowed to resist, Hormuz traffic stayed down about 95 percent, and Asian oil fell 5 percent on ceasefire hopes. In Turkey, riot police stormed the CHP headquarters and installed a court-backed leader over Atatürk's party; Ukraine's drones cut Russian fuel output by a fifth; and the UK and France blocked a NATO Ukraine-aid levy. Elsewhere, China launched three astronauts, a Tokyo attack injured about 20, and Sudan's war passed 880 civilian deaths.

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us · United States

US Sanctions Iran, Canada Tariffs, Debt Hits $40T

The United States entered the week with a $40 trillion debt load, 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods and a promised “economic D-Day” against Iran. Each move projects leverage, but stubborn inflation, strained missile stocks and Tehran’s control over Gulf shipping show how quickly American coercion is consuming the capacity behind it.

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gb · United Kingdom

Iran-Linked Hackers Hit UK Power Plant

A four-day shutdown at a British power plant, 2.9 percent inflation and a £221 jump in typical annual energy bills brought foreign conflict into domestic systems. Andy Burnham’s missile-technology transfer to Ukraine and France’s interception of 4,300 Channel crossings show a government trying to push security outward while vulnerability keeps moving home.

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fr · France

France Campaign Tests Strained Institutions

Water tankers, a breach affecting 678,000 tax records and four suspected Russian operations against Gabriel Attal turned state capacity into an early presidential issue. The fiscal watchdog then warned that a year without a 2027 budget would worsen the deficit by at least 0.5 percent of GDP, making institutional competence the campaign’s scarce resource.

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de · Germany

Germany Arming as Coalition Shrinks: €12B Strike Plan

Germany answered Russian pressure with a €12 billion long-range arsenal and new aid for Ukraine, yet its auto industry lost 42,300 jobs and the AfD approached a first state government. Berlin is building harder external defences as economic stagnation and coalition weakness erode the political centre expected to sustain them.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Air Defense Shortage After Russian Barrage

Russian barrages killed at least 16 around Kyiv and 16 more at a Kryvyi Rih shopping centre while Ukraine’s Patriot batteries ran nearly empty. Kyiv struck refineries, aircraft and air defences deep inside Russia, but Zelensky’s request for 300 to 360 interceptors shows that offensive success still cannot buy safety before winter.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Pushes Single-Round Vote, PKK Amnesty

A proposed one-round presidential election, a conditional PKK pardon and Ankara’s request for an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu all widened Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s room to act. Peace at home and leverage abroad could be genuine gains, but each is being organised around the presidency’s need to outlast a fragmented opposition.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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tr98

Erdoğan's government seizes CHP headquarters in Ankara and installs a loyalist atop Atatürk's party

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has seized the Ankara headquarters of the opposition CHP and, through a compliant judge, installed a loyalist as the party's leader -- a hostile takeover of the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The move follows an Ankara appeals court's annulment of the CHP's 2023 congress and the removal of leader Özgür Özel earlier in the week. Özel has continued to defy Erdoğan despite the risk of imprisonment, though whether Turks mobilise in defence of the party will not be clear until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has seized the Ankara headquarters of the opposition CHP and, through a compliant judge, installed a loyalist as the party's leader -- a hostile takeover of the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The move follows an Ankara appeals court's annulment of the CHP's 2023 congress and the removal of leader Özgür Özel earlier in the week. Özel has continued to defy Erdoğan despite the risk of imprisonment, though whether Turks mobilise in defence of the party will not be clear until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.

ua95

Ukrainian deep strikes halt central Russian refineries and cut national fuel output by about a fifth

Ukraine's long-range drone campaign has forced all major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut production, lowering national fuel output by about 20 percent, with the Yaroslavl refinery struck a record 15th time on Friday. The campaign's peak came overnight on May 16-17, when Ukraine launched the largest single-night drone raid in history -- Russia's defense ministry claimed 1,030 drones downed in six hours, more than 350 over greater Moscow -- hitting a semiconductor plant, an oil pumping station and the Moscow Oil Refinery. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Tuesday that, for the first time in the war, Ukraine is conducting more offensive actions than Russia.

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Ukraine's long-range drone campaign has forced all major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut production, lowering national fuel output by about 20 percent, with the Yaroslavl refinery struck a record 15th time on Friday. The campaign's peak came overnight on May 16-17, when Ukraine launched the largest single-night drone raid in history -- Russia's defense ministry claimed 1,030 drones downed in six hours, more than 350 over greater Moscow -- hitting a semiconductor plant, an oil pumping station and the Moscow Oil Refinery. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Tuesday that, for the first time in the war, Ukraine is conducting more offensive actions than Russia.

gb95

Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell pleads guilty to embezzling over £400,000 from the party

Peter Murrell, the Scottish National Party's chief executive for 22 years and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh on Monday to embezzling £400,310.65 from the party between 2010 and 2022. The judge, Lord Young, called it a "gross breach of trust"; Murrell was remanded in custody and will be sentenced on 23 June. Sturgeon and current SNP leader John Swinney both said they felt betrayed and denied any knowledge of the thefts, while opposition figures questioned the credibility of those denials.

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Peter Murrell, the Scottish National Party's chief executive for 22 years and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh on Monday to embezzling £400,310.65 from the party between 2010 and 2022. The judge, Lord Young, called it a "gross breach of trust"; Murrell was remanded in custody and will be sentenced on 23 June. Sturgeon and current SNP leader John Swinney both said they felt betrayed and denied any knowledge of the thefts, while opposition figures questioned the credibility of those denials.

tr95

Middle East rivals unite to push Trump toward Iran peace deal amid war fallout

Rival Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan, have coalesced behind a provisional peace deal with Iran, urging the Trump administration to accept it despite fierce opposition from Israel. The agreement, reached after Pakistani and Qatari officials traveled to Iran, aims to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and relaunch nuclear negotiations. The diplomatic push reflects regional disillusionment with U.S. power after Washington failed to deliver a decisive blow against Iran or protect Gulf allies.

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Rival Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan, have coalesced behind a provisional peace deal with Iran, urging the Trump administration to accept it despite fierce opposition from Israel. The agreement, reached after Pakistani and Qatari officials traveled to Iran, aims to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and relaunch nuclear negotiations. The diplomatic push reflects regional disillusionment with U.S. power after Washington failed to deliver a decisive blow against Iran or protect Gulf allies.

ua92

Ukraine detains 18-year-old Russian agent who coordinated May 24 attack on Kyiv

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) detained an 18-year-old Kyiv resident on May 25 for allegedly coordinating a massive Russian attack on Kyiv the previous night that killed two people and injured 91. The suspect was arrested while conducting reconnaissance near a Ministry of Defense facility and assessing damage from the strike, according to the SBU. He faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason committed under martial law.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) detained an 18-year-old Kyiv resident on May 25 for allegedly coordinating a massive Russian attack on Kyiv the previous night that killed two people and injured 91. The suspect was arrested while conducting reconnaissance near a Ministry of Defense facility and assessing damage from the strike, according to the SBU. He faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason committed under martial law.

us90

Strait of Hormuz traffic down about 95 percent since the US-Iran war, vessel-tracking data show

Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen roughly 95 percent since the US-Iran war began on February 28, from about 100 vessels a day to around six, according to figures drawn from the IMF's PortWatch tracker. Only 532 ships -- including 220 tankers, a quarter of them on February 28 alone -- passed between February 28 and May 17, and 218 have transited since the US blockade started. Iranian officials say traffic edged up to 20 to 25 vessels a day over the past week.

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Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen roughly 95 percent since the US-Iran war began on February 28, from about 100 vessels a day to around six, according to figures drawn from the IMF's PortWatch tracker. Only 532 ships -- including 220 tankers, a quarter of them on February 28 alone -- passed between February 28 and May 17, and 218 have transited since the US blockade started. Iranian officials say traffic edged up to 20 to 25 vessels a day over the past week.

fr88

Attal proposes a center-right primary for 2027 as Philippe and the Republicans rebuff it

Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister who formally entered the 2027 presidential race on May 22, said on Brut that the centrist bloc may need a primary to keep its vote from splitting and ceding the runoff to La France Insoumise and the National Rally. He has convened a liaison committee with Edouard Philippe's Horizons and Francois Bayrou's MoDem that has met once. Both Philippe and the Republicans rejected the idea, with Philippe saying there is "no place for this primary" given how wide the field is and how little the parties trust one another.

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Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister who formally entered the 2027 presidential race on May 22, said on Brut that the centrist bloc may need a primary to keep its vote from splitting and ceding the runoff to La France Insoumise and the National Rally. He has convened a liaison committee with Edouard Philippe's Horizons and Francois Bayrou's MoDem that has met once. Both Philippe and the Republicans rejected the idea, with Philippe saying there is "no place for this primary" given how wide the field is and how little the parties trust one another.

de88

German foreign minister proposes 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral arms funding for Ukraine

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told NATO counterparts at their Helsingborg meeting on Friday that allies should add at least 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral pledges on top of the existing EU credit for Ukraine. The EU package provides 90 billion euros over two years, but of the 45 billion for 2026 only about 30 billion is available for arms procurement, against an estimated need of up to 70 billion. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the EU credit lets Kyiv order only 60 percent of what its own industry can build.

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German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told NATO counterparts at their Helsingborg meeting on Friday that allies should add at least 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral pledges on top of the existing EU credit for Ukraine. The EU package provides 90 billion euros over two years, but of the 45 billion for 2026 only about 30 billion is available for arms procurement, against an estimated need of up to 70 billion. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the EU credit lets Kyiv order only 60 percent of what its own industry can build.

us85

Trump says any Iran deal must be 'great and meaningful' or there will be no deal

US President Donald Trump said Monday that any potential agreement with Iran would need to be “great and meaningful,” warning that otherwise there would be no agreement. Trump made the statement on his Truth Social platform, adding that any deal would be “the exact opposite” of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he described as “a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran.”

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US President Donald Trump said Monday that any potential agreement with Iran would need to be “great and meaningful,” warning that otherwise there would be no agreement. Trump made the statement on his Truth Social platform, adding that any deal would be “the exact opposite” of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he described as “a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran.”

gb85

UK, France, Spain, Italy, Canada block Rutte's 0.25% GDP Ukraine aid proposal

Five major NATO allies — the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada — have blocked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's proposal requiring members to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported on 24 May. Rutte conceded the plan lacked unanimous support and will not move forward ahead of the alliance's July summit in Ankara. At least seven members, including Poland, the Netherlands, and Nordic and Baltic states, already spending at or above the threshold backed the initiative.

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Five major NATO allies — the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada — have blocked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's proposal requiring members to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported on 24 May. Rutte conceded the plan lacked unanimous support and will not move forward ahead of the alliance's July summit in Ankara. At least seven members, including Poland, the Netherlands, and Nordic and Baltic states, already spending at or above the threshold backed the initiative.