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Global Briefing May 7

Two Wars Move Toward Washington Mediation as AI Race Shifts

Russia's spring offensive is at peak intensity but Russian forces are 'expending resources rather than accumulating them', Joint Forces spokesman Viktor Trehubov said, as Zelenskyy sent NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov to meet US envoys Witkoff and Kushner. Sixty days into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Trump announced a Hormuz operation on May 4 and abandoned it May 5; Brent fell 3.5 percent to 97.5 dollars a barrel after a US one-page memo reached Tehran via Pakistan. The same day DeepSeek shipped V4 tuned to Huawei GPUs, and Anthropic warned an AI model could fully train its successor by 2028.

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us · United States

US Sanctions Iran, Canada Tariffs, Debt Hits $40T

The United States entered the week with a $40 trillion debt load, 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods and a promised “economic D-Day” against Iran. Each move projects leverage, but stubborn inflation, strained missile stocks and Tehran’s control over Gulf shipping show how quickly American coercion is consuming the capacity behind it.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Iran-Linked Hackers Hit UK Power Plant

A four-day shutdown at a British power plant, 2.9 percent inflation and a £221 jump in typical annual energy bills brought foreign conflict into domestic systems. Andy Burnham’s missile-technology transfer to Ukraine and France’s interception of 4,300 Channel crossings show a government trying to push security outward while vulnerability keeps moving home.

Weekly brief
fr · France

France Campaign Tests Strained Institutions

Water tankers, a breach affecting 678,000 tax records and four suspected Russian operations against Gabriel Attal turned state capacity into an early presidential issue. The fiscal watchdog then warned that a year without a 2027 budget would worsen the deficit by at least 0.5 percent of GDP, making institutional competence the campaign’s scarce resource.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Germany Arming as Coalition Shrinks: €12B Strike Plan

Germany answered Russian pressure with a €12 billion long-range arsenal and new aid for Ukraine, yet its auto industry lost 42,300 jobs and the AfD approached a first state government. Berlin is building harder external defences as economic stagnation and coalition weakness erode the political centre expected to sustain them.

Weekly brief
ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Air Defense Shortage After Russian Barrage

Russian barrages killed at least 16 around Kyiv and 16 more at a Kryvyi Rih shopping centre while Ukraine’s Patriot batteries ran nearly empty. Kyiv struck refineries, aircraft and air defences deep inside Russia, but Zelensky’s request for 300 to 360 interceptors shows that offensive success still cannot buy safety before winter.

Weekly brief
tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Pushes Single-Round Vote, PKK Amnesty

A proposed one-round presidential election, a conditional PKK pardon and Ankara’s request for an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu all widened Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s room to act. Peace at home and leverage abroad could be genuine gains, but each is being organised around the presidency’s need to outlast a fragmented opposition.

Weekly brief
Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua97

Russia's spring-summer offensive is at peak intensity with forces 'expending resources rather than accumulating', Ukrainian command says

Russian forces have entered the active phase of their spring-summer offensive against Ukraine, with the campaign already at peak intensity and Russian troops 'not accumulating resources but rather expending them', Viktor Trehubov, head of the communications department of Ukraine's Joint Forces, said on the national 24/7 newscast cited by Ukrinform. Trehubov said armoured-vehicle use remains minimal because added protection layers only invite one more drone, and that a battlefield saturated with drones is shifting an increasing share of work to ground robotic systems, with warm, dry weather aiding strike activity.

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Russian forces have entered the active phase of their spring-summer offensive against Ukraine, with the campaign already at peak intensity and Russian troops 'not accumulating resources but rather expending them', Viktor Trehubov, head of the communications department of Ukraine's Joint Forces, said on the national 24/7 newscast cited by Ukrinform. Trehubov said armoured-vehicle use remains minimal because added protection layers only invite one more drone, and that a battlefield saturated with drones is shifting an increasing share of work to ground robotic systems, with warm, dry weather aiding strike activity.

us95

Trump abandons Hormuz operation a day after announcing it as US-Israel campaign on Iran reaches 60 days with regime intact

Two months into the US-Israeli war on Iran, intensive bombing has failed to decapitate the Iranian regime or degrade its military capabilities, while Iran's continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens the global economy. President Trump announced a military operation on May 4 to force the strait, then dropped it the next day; Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the war 'finished' the same day, only for Trump to counter with the threat of 'much stronger' bombings absent diplomatic progress. Iran's allies struck the United Arab Emirates on May 5, while a ceasefire that has held since April 8 has left the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran's strait closure both in place ahead of Trump's May 14-15 Beijing visit.

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Two months into the US-Israeli war on Iran, intensive bombing has failed to decapitate the Iranian regime or degrade its military capabilities, while Iran's continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens the global economy. President Trump announced a military operation on May 4 to force the strait, then dropped it the next day; Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the war 'finished' the same day, only for Trump to counter with the threat of 'much stronger' bombings absent diplomatic progress. Iran's allies struck the United Arab Emirates on May 5, while a ceasefire that has held since April 8 has left the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran's strait closure both in place ahead of Trump's May 14-15 Beijing visit.

ua95

Ukraine sends chief negotiator Rustem Umerov to US for peace talks as negotiations stall

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dispatched National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov to meet with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the U.S., a top Ukrainian official told POLITICO. The trip comes as Moscow-Kyiv peace negotiations mediated by Washington have stalled, with major sticking points including control over the Donbas region and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Zelenskyy has publicly criticized the imbalance in Witkoff's visits — eight trips to Moscow and none to Kyiv — calling it disrespectful.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dispatched National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov to meet with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the U.S., a top Ukrainian official told POLITICO. The trip comes as Moscow-Kyiv peace negotiations mediated by Washington have stalled, with major sticking points including control over the Donbas region and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Zelenskyy has publicly criticized the imbalance in Witkoff's visits — eight trips to Moscow and none to Kyiv — calling it disrespectful.

gb95

Scotland votes for 129 MSPs in 2026 Holyrood election with a record 4,320,981 on the roll and no overnight count

Polling stations across Scotland opened at 07:00 on May 7 for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with a record 4,320,981 people registered to vote and almost a fifth of the electorate having applied for a postal ballot, according to the Electoral Commission. Voters are choosing 129 members of the Scottish Parliament — 73 in constituencies and 56 across eight regional lists — with polling stations closing at 22:00 and no requirement to show photo ID, unlike in England. For the second consecutive Holyrood vote there will be no overnight count: the Electoral Management Board for Scotland said counting will start at 09:00 on Friday, with first declarations expected in the afternoon and the final results from the Highlands and Islands region not due until about 19:00.

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Polling stations across Scotland opened at 07:00 on May 7 for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with a record 4,320,981 people registered to vote and almost a fifth of the electorate having applied for a postal ballot, according to the Electoral Commission. Voters are choosing 129 members of the Scottish Parliament — 73 in constituencies and 56 across eight regional lists — with polling stations closing at 22:00 and no requirement to show photo ID, unlike in England. For the second consecutive Holyrood vote there will be no overnight count: the Electoral Management Board for Scotland said counting will start at 09:00 on Friday, with first declarations expected in the afternoon and the final results from the Highlands and Islands region not due until about 19:00.

de92

Berlin's state intelligence chiefs warn of urgent Iran-linked hybrid-attack threat as Merz and Dobrindt play it down

Germany's national leaders and state intelligence agencies have clashed privately since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran over how bluntly to warn the public about the risk of Iran-sponsored attacks on German soil, according to a New York Times account drawing on 11 German intelligence officials, former officials and lawmakers. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt have publicly cast the threats as 'largely hypothetical'; regional intelligence chiefs inside state governments say the threats are more concrete and urgent, five senior officials told the paper. Germany's role hosting US bases used in the Iran campaign has made the country a target in Tehran's eyes and is feeding fears of bombings or hybrid attacks by proxy agents recruited by Iran.

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Germany's national leaders and state intelligence agencies have clashed privately since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran over how bluntly to warn the public about the risk of Iran-sponsored attacks on German soil, according to a New York Times account drawing on 11 German intelligence officials, former officials and lawmakers. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt have publicly cast the threats as 'largely hypothetical'; regional intelligence chiefs inside state governments say the threats are more concrete and urgent, five senior officials told the paper. Germany's role hosting US bases used in the Iran campaign has made the country a target in Tehran's eyes and is feeding fears of bombings or hybrid attacks by proxy agents recruited by Iran.

ua90

UN reports at least 70 civilians killed, over 500 wounded in Ukraine since May 1

The United Nations reported that at least 70 civilians have been killed and more than 500 wounded across Ukraine since the start of May. On May 5 alone, 28 people were killed and 194 wounded during Russian attacks, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Mission Head Danielle Bell said the scale of civilian casualties and the extent of territory affected in just a few days are particularly alarming.

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The United Nations reported that at least 70 civilians have been killed and more than 500 wounded across Ukraine since the start of May. On May 5 alone, 28 people were killed and 194 wounded during Russian attacks, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Mission Head Danielle Bell said the scale of civilian casualties and the extent of territory affected in just a few days are particularly alarming.

fr88

France led 10.2% rise in EU Schengen visas to Russians in 2025, confidential Commission data shows

EU governments issued more than 620,000 Schengen visas to Russian citizens in 2025, a 10.2 percent rise from 2024, with France, Italy and Spain accounting for nearly three-quarters of applications, according to confidential European Commission figures circulated to capitals and seen by Euractiv. France posted the steepest year-on-year jump at 23 percent, cutting against the Commission's November 2025 ban on multiple-entry Schengen visas for Russians, which Brussels had justified by citing sabotage, espionage and weaponized migration. After eight member states demanded an explanation, the figures Paris had asked the Commission to remove from the internal Schengen Barometer reappeared in May in a separate technical document.

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EU governments issued more than 620,000 Schengen visas to Russian citizens in 2025, a 10.2 percent rise from 2024, with France, Italy and Spain accounting for nearly three-quarters of applications, according to confidential European Commission figures circulated to capitals and seen by Euractiv. France posted the steepest year-on-year jump at 23 percent, cutting against the Commission's November 2025 ban on multiple-entry Schengen visas for Russians, which Brussels had justified by citing sabotage, espionage and weaponized migration. After eight member states demanded an explanation, the figures Paris had asked the Commission to remove from the internal Schengen Barometer reappeared in May in a separate technical document.

us88

Oil prices extend decline as US sends peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, Trump warns deal not final

Oil prices fell on Thursday, with Brent crude dropping 3.5% to $97.5 per barrel, after reports that the US sent a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump cautioned that a deal is not yet finalized and warned the US could resume military strikes if Tehran fails to comply. Prices also came under pressure after Trump temporarily reversed a plan to assist commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, following a key Gulf ally's decision to suspend US military use of its bases and airspace for the operation.

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Oil prices fell on Thursday, with Brent crude dropping 3.5% to $97.5 per barrel, after reports that the US sent a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump cautioned that a deal is not yet finalized and warned the US could resume military strikes if Tehran fails to comply. Prices also came under pressure after Trump temporarily reversed a plan to assist commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, following a key Gulf ally's decision to suspend US military use of its bases and airspace for the operation.

gb88

Report says Keir Starmer's discomfort with progressive values driving away left-leaning voters

A report from UCL's Policy Lab, using research by veteran pollster Stan Greenberg, warns that Keir Starmer's lack of a clear values-based argument is pushing progressive voters away from Labour. The findings come as the party braces for poor results in Thursday's local elections, which could trigger a leadership challenge. The report says voters want a more robust challenge to Donald Trump and a stronger defence of environmentalism.

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A report from UCL's Policy Lab, using research by veteran pollster Stan Greenberg, warns that Keir Starmer's lack of a clear values-based argument is pushing progressive voters away from Labour. The findings come as the party braces for poor results in Thursday's local elections, which could trigger a leadership challenge. The report says voters want a more robust challenge to Donald Trump and a stronger defence of environmentalism.

us85

DeepSeek V4 designed for Huawei chips challenges US AI dominance

DeepSeek has released version 4 of its AI model, designed to run on Huawei's GPU chips, demonstrating China's technological autonomy. The launch threatens the market position of US firms OpenAI and Anthropic, which plan IPOs in late 2026. OpenAI and Anthropic have accused DeepSeek of using "distillation" to train its models on responses from ChatGPT and Claude.

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DeepSeek has released version 4 of its AI model, designed to run on Huawei's GPU chips, demonstrating China's technological autonomy. The launch threatens the market position of US firms OpenAI and Anthropic, which plan IPOs in late 2026. OpenAI and Anthropic have accused DeepSeek of using "distillation" to train its models on responses from ChatGPT and Claude.