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Iran Escalation Options, Russia Missile Threat, Ukraine Strikes
Washington finalised Iran strike options — an Isfahan raid, a Kharg Island assault and expanded mainland bombardment — while Trump and Xi locked in a Beijing principle barring an Iranian nuclear weapon. Putin singled out the Kinzhal and Oreshnik as suited to strikes on Europe as Berlin loses its US Tomahawk promise. Ukraine tallied 23 deep-strike targets 1,000–1,500 km inside Russia; US forces killed IS deputy al-Minuki in Nigeria; Iran flagged a new Strait of Hormuz mechanism; Putin set a China visit days after Trump's summit; and Erdoğan tied Mideast stability to ending Israel's actions.
US Sanctions Iran, Canada Tariffs, Debt Hits $40T
The United States entered the week with a $40 trillion debt load, 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods and a promised “economic D-Day” against Iran. Each move projects leverage, but stubborn inflation, strained missile stocks and Tehran’s control over Gulf shipping show how quickly American coercion is consuming the capacity behind it.
Weekly briefIran-Linked Hackers Hit UK Power Plant
A four-day shutdown at a British power plant, 2.9 percent inflation and a £221 jump in typical annual energy bills brought foreign conflict into domestic systems. Andy Burnham’s missile-technology transfer to Ukraine and France’s interception of 4,300 Channel crossings show a government trying to push security outward while vulnerability keeps moving home.
Weekly briefFrance Campaign Tests Strained Institutions
Water tankers, a breach affecting 678,000 tax records and four suspected Russian operations against Gabriel Attal turned state capacity into an early presidential issue. The fiscal watchdog then warned that a year without a 2027 budget would worsen the deficit by at least 0.5 percent of GDP, making institutional competence the campaign’s scarce resource.
Weekly briefGermany Arming as Coalition Shrinks: €12B Strike Plan
Germany answered Russian pressure with a €12 billion long-range arsenal and new aid for Ukraine, yet its auto industry lost 42,300 jobs and the AfD approached a first state government. Berlin is building harder external defences as economic stagnation and coalition weakness erode the political centre expected to sustain them.
Weekly briefUkraine Air Defense Shortage After Russian Barrage
Russian barrages killed at least 16 around Kyiv and 16 more at a Kryvyi Rih shopping centre while Ukraine’s Patriot batteries ran nearly empty. Kyiv struck refineries, aircraft and air defences deep inside Russia, but Zelensky’s request for 300 to 360 interceptors shows that offensive success still cannot buy safety before winter.
Weekly briefErdoğan Pushes Single-Round Vote, PKK Amnesty
A proposed one-round presidential election, a conditional PKK pardon and Ankara’s request for an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu all widened Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s room to act. Peace at home and leverage abroad could be genuine gains, but each is being organised around the presidency’s need to outlast a fragmented opposition.
Weekly briefAll Events
Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.
us98US finalizes Iran strike package for Isfahan nuclear raid and Kharg Island as classified review shows Tehran has rebuilt 30 of 33 missile positions
The US-Israeli joint command has finalized contingency plans to broaden Operation Epic Fury against Iran if the truce talks collapse, including a special-forces seizure of enriched material at the Isfahan nuclear facility, an amphibious assault to take Kharg Island, and expanded long-range bombardment of mainland targets, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and a New York Times report disclosed. Classified assessments show Iran has restored 30 of 33 missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz and retains around 70 percent of its mobile launchers and ballistic inventory and 90 percent of its underground bunkers, contradicting earlier White House statements that the Iranian military was "crushed" or "decimated." Donald Trump and Xi Jinping locked in an in-principle understanding in Beijing that Iran cannot be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon, with Washington weighing a targeted easing of secondary sanctions on Chinese state and independent buyers of Iranian crude to keep Beijing inside the pressure regime.
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US finalizes Iran strike package for Isfahan nuclear raid and Kharg Island as classified review shows Tehran has rebuilt 30 of 33 missile positions
The US-Israeli joint command has finalized contingency plans to broaden Operation Epic Fury against Iran if the truce talks collapse, including a special-forces seizure of enriched material at the Isfahan nuclear facility, an amphibious assault to take Kharg Island, and expanded long-range bombardment of mainland targets, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and a New York Times report disclosed. Classified assessments show Iran has restored 30 of 33 missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz and retains around 70 percent of its mobile launchers and ballistic inventory and 90 percent of its underground bunkers, contradicting earlier White House statements that the Iranian military was "crushed" or "decimated." Donald Trump and Xi Jinping locked in an in-principle understanding in Beijing that Iran cannot be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon, with Washington weighing a targeted easing of secondary sanctions on Chinese state and independent buyers of Iranian crude to keep Beijing inside the pressure regime.
The US-Israeli joint command has finalized contingency plans to broaden Operation Epic Fury against Iran if the truce talks collapse, including a special-forces seizure of enriched material at the Isfahan nuclear facility, an amphibious assault to take Kharg Island, and expanded long-range bombardment of mainland targets, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and a New York Times report disclosed. Classified assessments show Iran has restored 30 of 33 missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz and retains around 70 percent of its mobile launchers and ballistic inventory and 90 percent of its underground bunkers, contradicting earlier White House statements that the Iranian military was "crushed" or "decimated." Donald Trump and Xi Jinping locked in an in-principle understanding in Beijing that Iran cannot be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon, with Washington weighing a targeted easing of secondary sanctions on Chinese state and independent buyers of Iranian crude to keep Beijing inside the pressure regime.
us95US arrests Iraqi militia commander accused of orchestrating international terror attacks
US authorities have arrested and charged Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a 32-year-old Iraqi national alleged to be a senior commander of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah, with orchestrating at least 18 attacks across the US, Canada, and Europe. A criminal complaint unsealed Friday in Manhattan federal court accuses him of directing firebombings, a synagogue arson, a shooting at the US consulate in Toronto, and plotting attacks on Jewish targets in New York, California, and Arizona. FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed al-Saadi was arrested overseas and brought to the US, calling him “another high-value target responsible for mass global terrorism.”
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US arrests Iraqi militia commander accused of orchestrating international terror attacks
US authorities have arrested and charged Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a 32-year-old Iraqi national alleged to be a senior commander of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah, with orchestrating at least 18 attacks across the US, Canada, and Europe. A criminal complaint unsealed Friday in Manhattan federal court accuses him of directing firebombings, a synagogue arson, a shooting at the US consulate in Toronto, and plotting attacks on Jewish targets in New York, California, and Arizona. FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed al-Saadi was arrested overseas and brought to the US, calling him “another high-value target responsible for mass global terrorism.”
US authorities have arrested and charged Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a 32-year-old Iraqi national alleged to be a senior commander of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah, with orchestrating at least 18 attacks across the US, Canada, and Europe. A criminal complaint unsealed Friday in Manhattan federal court accuses him of directing firebombings, a synagogue arson, a shooting at the US consulate in Toronto, and plotting attacks on Jewish targets in New York, California, and Arizona. FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed al-Saadi was arrested overseas and brought to the US, calling him “another high-value target responsible for mass global terrorism.”
ua95Zelensky reports week-long Ukrainian deep-strike campaign hitting 23 strategic targets up to 1,500 km inside Russia, including Ryazan refinery and Caspian fleet
Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Saturday video posted to Telegram and X that Ukrainian long-range weapons struck 23 high-value targets across mainland Russia and occupied territories this week, at depths of up to 1,000 kilometres from the front and as far as 1,500 km in the Orenburg gas case, with most operations still ongoing. Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi said drone operators executed 55 confirmed strikes destroying a Be-200 amphibious aircraft and Ka-27 helicopter at Morskoy near Yeysk, a Tor-M2 system in occupied Luhansk, a Pantsir-S1 in Crimea, an ammunition-laden cargo ship in Berdyansk port, the Ryazan oil refinery operated by Rosneft, and missile and minesweeper ships at the Kaspiysk Caspian Sea naval base. "These are our entirely justified responses to what the Russians are doing," Zelensky said, vowing to increase both the range and scale of what he called Ukraine's "long-range sanctions."
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Zelensky reports week-long Ukrainian deep-strike campaign hitting 23 strategic targets up to 1,500 km inside Russia, including Ryazan refinery and Caspian fleet
Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Saturday video posted to Telegram and X that Ukrainian long-range weapons struck 23 high-value targets across mainland Russia and occupied territories this week, at depths of up to 1,000 kilometres from the front and as far as 1,500 km in the Orenburg gas case, with most operations still ongoing. Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi said drone operators executed 55 confirmed strikes destroying a Be-200 amphibious aircraft and Ka-27 helicopter at Morskoy near Yeysk, a Tor-M2 system in occupied Luhansk, a Pantsir-S1 in Crimea, an ammunition-laden cargo ship in Berdyansk port, the Ryazan oil refinery operated by Rosneft, and missile and minesweeper ships at the Kaspiysk Caspian Sea naval base. "These are our entirely justified responses to what the Russians are doing," Zelensky said, vowing to increase both the range and scale of what he called Ukraine's "long-range sanctions."
Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Saturday video posted to Telegram and X that Ukrainian long-range weapons struck 23 high-value targets across mainland Russia and occupied territories this week, at depths of up to 1,000 kilometres from the front and as far as 1,500 km in the Orenburg gas case, with most operations still ongoing. Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi said drone operators executed 55 confirmed strikes destroying a Be-200 amphibious aircraft and Ka-27 helicopter at Morskoy near Yeysk, a Tor-M2 system in occupied Luhansk, a Pantsir-S1 in Crimea, an ammunition-laden cargo ship in Berdyansk port, the Ryazan oil refinery operated by Rosneft, and missile and minesweeper ships at the Kaspiysk Caspian Sea naval base. "These are our entirely justified responses to what the Russians are doing," Zelensky said, vowing to increase both the range and scale of what he called Ukraine's "long-range sanctions."
de95Putin's Kinzhal and Oreshnik warning, US Tomahawk reversal and an ISW April loss tally narrow Germany's deterrence window
Vladimir Putin on May 16 said Russia's missiles "have no equal" in the world and singled out the hypersonic Kinzhal and the medium-range Oreshnik as suited to strikes on Europe, the FAZ reported, the latest in a February-to-May arc of Russian threats that began with Dmitry Medvedev's nuclear warning to Ukraine's allies and ran through Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu's April invocation of a "right of self-defence" against Finland and the Baltic states. The Institute for the Study of War said Russia lost more territory than it gained in April and is struggling to replace its dead even as the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung's "Monitor Luftkrieg Ukraine" tracks the construction of a fresh Russian missile reserve. Berlin is now seeking a European replacement for the Tomahawks Washington has reportedly walked back from stationing in Germany, with CDU defence policy lead Roderich Kiesewetter calling on the Bundestag to declare an Article 80a Spannungsfall to accelerate rearmament.
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Putin's Kinzhal and Oreshnik warning, US Tomahawk reversal and an ISW April loss tally narrow Germany's deterrence window
Vladimir Putin on May 16 said Russia's missiles "have no equal" in the world and singled out the hypersonic Kinzhal and the medium-range Oreshnik as suited to strikes on Europe, the FAZ reported, the latest in a February-to-May arc of Russian threats that began with Dmitry Medvedev's nuclear warning to Ukraine's allies and ran through Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu's April invocation of a "right of self-defence" against Finland and the Baltic states. The Institute for the Study of War said Russia lost more territory than it gained in April and is struggling to replace its dead even as the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung's "Monitor Luftkrieg Ukraine" tracks the construction of a fresh Russian missile reserve. Berlin is now seeking a European replacement for the Tomahawks Washington has reportedly walked back from stationing in Germany, with CDU defence policy lead Roderich Kiesewetter calling on the Bundestag to declare an Article 80a Spannungsfall to accelerate rearmament.
Vladimir Putin on May 16 said Russia's missiles "have no equal" in the world and singled out the hypersonic Kinzhal and the medium-range Oreshnik as suited to strikes on Europe, the FAZ reported, the latest in a February-to-May arc of Russian threats that began with Dmitry Medvedev's nuclear warning to Ukraine's allies and ran through Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu's April invocation of a "right of self-defence" against Finland and the Baltic states. The Institute for the Study of War said Russia lost more territory than it gained in April and is struggling to replace its dead even as the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung's "Monitor Luftkrieg Ukraine" tracks the construction of a fresh Russian missile reserve. Berlin is now seeking a European replacement for the Tomahawks Washington has reportedly walked back from stationing in Germany, with CDU defence policy lead Roderich Kiesewetter calling on the Bundestag to declare an Article 80a Spannungsfall to accelerate rearmament.
tr95Erdoğan ties Iran de-escalation to neutralising Israeli provocations, presses NATO Ankara summit and EU bid on return from Turkic States summit
On the Friday return flight from his Astana and Turkistan visit, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters that "Israel's provocations must be neutralised, and then genuine peace must be built," framing the US-Israeli campaign against Iran as the main driver of the regional crisis and warning that Tel Aviv seeks to expand the war across the Middle East. He set out expectations for major alliance and security-architecture decisions at the forthcoming NATO summit in Ankara, reaffirmed Türkiye's EU membership goal against what he called the bloc's "ambivalent" and "openly discriminatory" practices, and said F-35 talks with Washington are continuing. Erdoğan also flagged the new Declaration on Eternal Friendship and Expanded Strategic Partnership with Kazakhstan, the Turkistan Declaration signed at the informal Organization of Turkic States summit, and Türkiye's defence trajectory, including the indigenous KAAN fifth-generation fighter and the SAHA 2026 fair in Istanbul that drew more than 150,000 visitors and $8 billion in business volume.
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Erdoğan ties Iran de-escalation to neutralising Israeli provocations, presses NATO Ankara summit and EU bid on return from Turkic States summit
On the Friday return flight from his Astana and Turkistan visit, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters that "Israel's provocations must be neutralised, and then genuine peace must be built," framing the US-Israeli campaign against Iran as the main driver of the regional crisis and warning that Tel Aviv seeks to expand the war across the Middle East. He set out expectations for major alliance and security-architecture decisions at the forthcoming NATO summit in Ankara, reaffirmed Türkiye's EU membership goal against what he called the bloc's "ambivalent" and "openly discriminatory" practices, and said F-35 talks with Washington are continuing. Erdoğan also flagged the new Declaration on Eternal Friendship and Expanded Strategic Partnership with Kazakhstan, the Turkistan Declaration signed at the informal Organization of Turkic States summit, and Türkiye's defence trajectory, including the indigenous KAAN fifth-generation fighter and the SAHA 2026 fair in Istanbul that drew more than 150,000 visitors and $8 billion in business volume.
On the Friday return flight from his Astana and Turkistan visit, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters that "Israel's provocations must be neutralised, and then genuine peace must be built," framing the US-Israeli campaign against Iran as the main driver of the regional crisis and warning that Tel Aviv seeks to expand the war across the Middle East. He set out expectations for major alliance and security-architecture decisions at the forthcoming NATO summit in Ankara, reaffirmed Türkiye's EU membership goal against what he called the bloc's "ambivalent" and "openly discriminatory" practices, and said F-35 talks with Washington are continuing. Erdoğan also flagged the new Declaration on Eternal Friendship and Expanded Strategic Partnership with Kazakhstan, the Turkistan Declaration signed at the informal Organization of Turkic States summit, and Türkiye's defence trajectory, including the indigenous KAAN fifth-generation fighter and the SAHA 2026 fair in Istanbul that drew more than 150,000 visitors and $8 billion in business volume.
fr92Bardella opens off-record press and foreign-capital circuit ahead of July 7 Paris appeals ruling on Le Pen's eligibility
Jordan Bardella has begun preparing to take over as the Rassemblement National's 2027 presidential candidate ahead of the July 7 Paris appeals court ruling in the FN European Parliament assistants case, which could bar Marine Le Pen from the contest, France Info reported. The 30-year-old party president is now holding off-record meetings with journalists, appearing alone at international summits, granting an interview to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung this week, and meeting ambassadors in Paris. RN officials say a foreign trip in the coming weeks is under consideration to harden his international stature before the verdict lands.
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Bardella opens off-record press and foreign-capital circuit ahead of July 7 Paris appeals ruling on Le Pen's eligibility
Jordan Bardella has begun preparing to take over as the Rassemblement National's 2027 presidential candidate ahead of the July 7 Paris appeals court ruling in the FN European Parliament assistants case, which could bar Marine Le Pen from the contest, France Info reported. The 30-year-old party president is now holding off-record meetings with journalists, appearing alone at international summits, granting an interview to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung this week, and meeting ambassadors in Paris. RN officials say a foreign trip in the coming weeks is under consideration to harden his international stature before the verdict lands.
Jordan Bardella has begun preparing to take over as the Rassemblement National's 2027 presidential candidate ahead of the July 7 Paris appeals court ruling in the FN European Parliament assistants case, which could bar Marine Le Pen from the contest, France Info reported. The 30-year-old party president is now holding off-record meetings with journalists, appearing alone at international summits, granting an interview to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung this week, and meeting ambassadors in Paris. RN officials say a foreign trip in the coming weeks is under consideration to harden his international stature before the verdict lands.
ua92Ukraine downs 269 of 294 Russian drones in massive overnight attack on May 15-16
Ukrainian air defense forces shot down or jammed 269 of 294 drones launched by Russia on the night of May 15-16, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. The attack targeted multiple regions, including Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava, hitting port infrastructure, residential buildings, and transit networks. At least five civilians were injured across the affected areas.
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Ukraine downs 269 of 294 Russian drones in massive overnight attack on May 15-16
Ukrainian air defense forces shot down or jammed 269 of 294 drones launched by Russia on the night of May 15-16, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. The attack targeted multiple regions, including Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava, hitting port infrastructure, residential buildings, and transit networks. At least five civilians were injured across the affected areas.
Ukrainian air defense forces shot down or jammed 269 of 294 drones launched by Russia on the night of May 15-16, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. The attack targeted multiple regions, including Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava, hitting port infrastructure, residential buildings, and transit networks. At least five civilians were injured across the affected areas.
fr89French judge to investigate Khashoggi assassination after complaint against Saudi crown prince
A Paris judge will investigate the 2018 assassination of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi after rights groups filed a complaint against Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, French sources told AFP on Saturday. The National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office confirmed an investigating judge from the crimes against humanity unit will probe the complaint for torture and enforced disappearances. The probe follows a court of appeal ruling on Monday that overturned years of opposition to the case on admissibility grounds.
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French judge to investigate Khashoggi assassination after complaint against Saudi crown prince
A Paris judge will investigate the 2018 assassination of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi after rights groups filed a complaint against Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, French sources told AFP on Saturday. The National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office confirmed an investigating judge from the crimes against humanity unit will probe the complaint for torture and enforced disappearances. The probe follows a court of appeal ruling on Monday that overturned years of opposition to the case on admissibility grounds.
A Paris judge will investigate the 2018 assassination of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi after rights groups filed a complaint against Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, French sources told AFP on Saturday. The National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office confirmed an investigating judge from the crimes against humanity unit will probe the complaint for torture and enforced disappearances. The probe follows a court of appeal ruling on Monday that overturned years of opposition to the case on admissibility grounds.
us88US farmers face worst crisis since 1980s as Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer costs
Farmers across the Midwest are entering planting season under mounting financial pressure as the Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer prices, deepening an agricultural downturn that some say is the worst since the 1980s. Diesel averaged $5.67 per gallon as of May 14, up 60% from a year earlier, and 70% of farmers cannot afford the fertilizer they need, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The crisis threatens to push more family farms out of business and drive up food prices, with ground beef already up 19% year-over-year.
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US farmers face worst crisis since 1980s as Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer costs
Farmers across the Midwest are entering planting season under mounting financial pressure as the Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer prices, deepening an agricultural downturn that some say is the worst since the 1980s. Diesel averaged $5.67 per gallon as of May 14, up 60% from a year earlier, and 70% of farmers cannot afford the fertilizer they need, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The crisis threatens to push more family farms out of business and drive up food prices, with ground beef already up 19% year-over-year.
Farmers across the Midwest are entering planting season under mounting financial pressure as the Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer prices, deepening an agricultural downturn that some say is the worst since the 1980s. Diesel averaged $5.67 per gallon as of May 14, up 60% from a year earlier, and 70% of farmers cannot afford the fertilizer they need, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The crisis threatens to push more family farms out of business and drive up food prices, with ground beef already up 19% year-over-year.
ua88Russia and Ukraine exchange 250 prisoners each as Ukrainian forces advance in Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka
Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 250 prisoners on May 15 as part of a larger 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap agreed under the Victory Day ceasefire. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka directions, while Russian forces launched six missiles and 141 drones overnight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv for possible future strikes.
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Russia and Ukraine exchange 250 prisoners each as Ukrainian forces advance in Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka
Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 250 prisoners on May 15 as part of a larger 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap agreed under the Victory Day ceasefire. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka directions, while Russian forces launched six missiles and 141 drones overnight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv for possible future strikes.
Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 250 prisoners on May 15 as part of a larger 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap agreed under the Victory Day ceasefire. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka directions, while Russian forces launched six missiles and 141 drones overnight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv for possible future strikes.