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Global Briefing June 26

Both Wars Nearly Won, But No Path to Peace

Both of the world's biggest wars edged toward their end this week — Turkish ships cleared the Strait of Hormuz after 100 days, Ukraine all but severed occupied Crimea, the US Senate voted 50-48 to halt the Iran war — yet none produced a peace. Iran called the signed memorandum a "US defeat" and Trump threatened to scrap it; Moscow met the loss of Crimea with nuclear talk as New START lay expired; and a heat-struck Europe, reactors offline and Volkswagen shedding 100,000 jobs, was in no state to backstop anyone.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

France Arms Europe as Politics Turn Against EU

France spent the week as Europe’s indispensable power — hosting the G7 at Évian, extending its nuclear umbrella to eight allies, presiding over Eurosatory, the West’s biggest arms fair. Yet a new poll put the far right’s Jordan Bardella on 35 percent for 2027, fifteen points clear, on a platform of calling the EU “obsolete” and halving France’s payments to it — and a July 7 court ruling may leave his party with no eligible candidate at all.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Wins Deep War but Struggles to Hold Skies

Ukraine's bet on strangulation over storming paid off this week: a destroyed rail bridge and a regional state of emergency left occupied Crimea all but cut off, a NATO official said Russia can no longer resupply it, and drones hit refineries and defense plants deep inside Russia. On the front, Russia's offensive stalled — just 14 sq km gained in May. But the win has a ceiling: Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors a month and the Iran war has drained the US stockpile, even as Russian strikes killed civilians in Kharkiv, Sumy and Oleshky.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua49

Ukraine launches 40-day SBU operation, strikes Russian naval vessels and S-400 in Kerch, and hits Azot chemical plant in Tula region

President Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU influence operation to pressure Russia into ending the war. On June 25-26, SBU drones struck the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships and the Petropavlovsk ferry at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, causing large fires, and hit an S-400 air defense system covering the Kerch Strait. Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, causing damage and a fire at the plant and a nearby power station. Russia claimed to have intercepted 660 drones across multiple regions, including 47 over Moscow. The Kerch Strait crossing was closed, leading to a 15-km queue of vehicles trying to leave Crimea amid a fuel shortage.

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President Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU influence operation to pressure Russia into ending the war. On June 25-26, SBU drones struck the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships and the Petropavlovsk ferry at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, causing large fires, and hit an S-400 air defense system covering the Kerch Strait. Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, causing damage and a fire at the plant and a nearby power station. Russia claimed to have intercepted 660 drones across multiple regions, including 47 over Moscow. The Kerch Strait crossing was closed, leading to a 15-km queue of vehicles trying to leave Crimea amid a fuel shortage.

us49

US considers relocating Gulf military bases to Israel after Iranian retaliatory strikes

The United States is reportedly considering moving some of its military bases from the Gulf region to Israel, following extensive damage inflicted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon may refurbish its base in Bahrain while winding down operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with two officials suggesting a possible relocation to Israel. The strikes were launched by Iran after the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on 28 February, and the US Navy base in Bahrain suffered repeated attacks between late February and June, causing damage to command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings. The Pentagon has not acknowledged the full extent of the destruction. This development comes amid shifting US public opinion, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing 60% of Americans believe the war with Iran was not worth it, and 61% believing Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

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The United States is reportedly considering moving some of its military bases from the Gulf region to Israel, following extensive damage inflicted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon may refurbish its base in Bahrain while winding down operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with two officials suggesting a possible relocation to Israel. The strikes were launched by Iran after the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on 28 February, and the US Navy base in Bahrain suffered repeated attacks between late February and June, causing damage to command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings. The Pentagon has not acknowledged the full extent of the destruction. This development comes amid shifting US public opinion, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing 60% of Americans believe the war with Iran was not worth it, and 61% believing Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

us49

US Senate passes war powers resolution to end Iran hostilities, joining House in historic rebuke of Trump

The Republican-led U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to approve a House-passed war powers resolution directing President Trump to cease military action against Iran, marking the first time both chambers have passed such a measure. Four Republicans—Susan Collins, Rand Paul, Bill Cassidy, and Lisa Murkowski—joined Democrats in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman voted against. The concurrent resolution, passed under the 1973 War Powers Act, does not require the president's signature and its enforceability is disputed. The vote reflects growing bipartisan concern over the conflict that began on February 28 and comes amid ongoing peace negotiations and public opposition to the war.

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The Republican-led U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to approve a House-passed war powers resolution directing President Trump to cease military action against Iran, marking the first time both chambers have passed such a measure. Four Republicans—Susan Collins, Rand Paul, Bill Cassidy, and Lisa Murkowski—joined Democrats in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman voted against. The concurrent resolution, passed under the 1973 War Powers Act, does not require the president's signature and its enforceability is disputed. The vote reflects growing bipartisan concern over the conflict that began on February 28 and comes amid ongoing peace negotiations and public opposition to the war.

us48

Kremlin says nuclear deterrence is the only guarantee against global war as arms control treaty expires

Background: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously declared nuclear weapons as the cornerstone of Russia's national security and signaled openness to EU talks. Today, at a foreign policy forum in Moscow, Peskov stated that nuclear deterrence is the only thing preventing a global war, as the New START treaty has expired with no replacement in sight. He warned that new non-nuclear weapons may eventually match nuclear destructive power, and reiterated Russia's position that any new arms control deal must include US allies Britain and France if China is included. The statement comes amid ongoing arms control discussions involving the US, China, Britain, and France.

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Background: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously declared nuclear weapons as the cornerstone of Russia's national security and signaled openness to EU talks. Today, at a foreign policy forum in Moscow, Peskov stated that nuclear deterrence is the only thing preventing a global war, as the New START treaty has expired with no replacement in sight. He warned that new non-nuclear weapons may eventually match nuclear destructive power, and reiterated Russia's position that any new arms control deal must include US allies Britain and France if China is included. The statement comes amid ongoing arms control discussions involving the US, China, Britain, and France.

us48

IMO pauses Strait of Hormuz evacuation after Iranian drone strike on cargo vessel; Iran and US clash over navigation rights

The UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its evacuation of stranded seafarers from the Strait of Hormuz after the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely was struck by an Iranian drone on June 25 while following a new Omani-IMO southern route. The IMO had reported that 115 vessels and 2,500 seafarers had been evacuated since Tuesday before suspending the operation. Iran's IRGC warned that only routes designated by Tehran are safe and that vessels not coordinating with Iran face consequences; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that safe passage cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements or parallel routes, citing Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU. The US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a joint statement rejecting any tolls or Iranian control over the strait and calling for free navigation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Gulf allies that any Iran deal will not undermine their interests. Iran and Oman announced plans to discuss future administration of the strait. Traffic through the strait has increased but remains below pre-war levels, with 70 confirmed crossings on June 24. South Korea reported that five more of its vessels exited the strait, with 13 still remaining. Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading at Ras Tanura terminal after a nearly four-month halt. Oil prices fell below pre-war levels. The incident highlights unresolved tensions over navigation rights following the US-Iran MoU.

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The UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its evacuation of stranded seafarers from the Strait of Hormuz after the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely was struck by an Iranian drone on June 25 while following a new Omani-IMO southern route. The IMO had reported that 115 vessels and 2,500 seafarers had been evacuated since Tuesday before suspending the operation. Iran's IRGC warned that only routes designated by Tehran are safe and that vessels not coordinating with Iran face consequences; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that safe passage cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements or parallel routes, citing Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU. The US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a joint statement rejecting any tolls or Iranian control over the strait and calling for free navigation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Gulf allies that any Iran deal will not undermine their interests. Iran and Oman announced plans to discuss future administration of the strait. Traffic through the strait has increased but remains below pre-war levels, with 70 confirmed crossings on June 24. South Korea reported that five more of its vessels exited the strait, with 13 still remaining. Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading at Ras Tanura terminal after a nearly four-month halt. Oil prices fell below pre-war levels. The incident highlights unresolved tensions over navigation rights following the US-Iran MoU.

ua48

Russia declares state of emergency in occupied Crimea amid fuel and power crisis from Ukrainian strikes

Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol declared a regional state of emergency on June 26, 2026, citing a deepening fuel and electricity crisis caused by intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the peninsula's energy infrastructure, fuel depots, and supply routes. The emergency grants authorities powers to restrict movement, halt enterprises, and expedite resource allocation. The crisis follows weeks of Ukrainian strikes that have knocked out power plants, caused widespread blackouts, halted fuel sales to the public, and disrupted logistics, including rail and ferry connections to mainland Russia. The declaration underscores the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's military logistics in southern Ukraine.

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Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol declared a regional state of emergency on June 26, 2026, citing a deepening fuel and electricity crisis caused by intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the peninsula's energy infrastructure, fuel depots, and supply routes. The emergency grants authorities powers to restrict movement, halt enterprises, and expedite resource allocation. The crisis follows weeks of Ukrainian strikes that have knocked out power plants, caused widespread blackouts, halted fuel sales to the public, and disrupted logistics, including rail and ferry connections to mainland Russia. The declaration underscores the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's military logistics in southern Ukraine.

tr48

ISIS operative claims 2015 Ankara bombing was unauthorized, alleges contacts with Turkish government

Senior ISIS operative Ömer Deniz Dündar, a defendant in the 2015 Ankara train station bombing case, told investigators that the attack which killed 109 people was initiated by a local commander without ISIS leadership authorization, during a period of alleged indirect negotiations between ISIS and Turkish authorities. Dündar also revealed assassination plots against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, American pastor Andrew Brunson, and LGBTQ communities. The claims revive longstanding allegations of Turkish intelligence (MİT) links to ISIS operatives, including İlhami Balı, who allegedly met with MİT officers. Dündar described a network called the 'Faruk Office' coordinating ISIS cells across Turkey, the Caucasus, Kosovo, and Europe.

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Senior ISIS operative Ömer Deniz Dündar, a defendant in the 2015 Ankara train station bombing case, told investigators that the attack which killed 109 people was initiated by a local commander without ISIS leadership authorization, during a period of alleged indirect negotiations between ISIS and Turkish authorities. Dündar also revealed assassination plots against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, American pastor Andrew Brunson, and LGBTQ communities. The claims revive longstanding allegations of Turkish intelligence (MİT) links to ISIS operatives, including İlhami Balı, who allegedly met with MİT officers. Dündar described a network called the 'Faruk Office' coordinating ISIS cells across Turkey, the Caucasus, Kosovo, and Europe.

fr48

June 2026 European heatwave breaks records, attributed to climate change

A severe June heatwave across Europe has broken temperature records in the UK and France, with the UK recording 37.3°C in Suffolk and France reaching 44.3°C in the southwest. The World Weather Attribution group found the event would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, making such extremes up to 200 times more likely than two decades ago. The heatwave has caused at least 55 drownings in France, school closures, hospital critical incidents, and event cancellations including Paris Pride and a Dutch music festival. The heatwave is moving eastward toward Germany and the Balkans.

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A severe June heatwave across Europe has broken temperature records in the UK and France, with the UK recording 37.3°C in Suffolk and France reaching 44.3°C in the southwest. The World Weather Attribution group found the event would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, making such extremes up to 200 times more likely than two decades ago. The heatwave has caused at least 55 drownings in France, school closures, hospital critical incidents, and event cancellations including Paris Pride and a Dutch music festival. The heatwave is moving eastward toward Germany and the Balkans.

ua48

Zelenskyy says Ukraine's Crimea operation is carefully calculated and could force Russia to peace with Western help

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's strike campaign against occupied Crimea is 'carefully calculated' and that with the right Western support, Kyiv could quickly force Russia toward peace. He cited intelligence showing Russian assessments of deep strikes causing pain, including the destruction of 6,000 tonnes of ammunition near St. Petersburg and hits on missile-component plants. Russia is reportedly moving air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch bridge, exposing vulnerabilities elsewhere. The campaign has caused fuel shortages across more than 60 Russian regions and raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability to hold September elections.

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's strike campaign against occupied Crimea is 'carefully calculated' and that with the right Western support, Kyiv could quickly force Russia toward peace. He cited intelligence showing Russian assessments of deep strikes causing pain, including the destruction of 6,000 tonnes of ammunition near St. Petersburg and hits on missile-component plants. Russia is reportedly moving air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch bridge, exposing vulnerabilities elsewhere. The campaign has caused fuel shortages across more than 60 Russian regions and raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability to hold September elections.

de48

Germany's unprecedented June heatwave reveals severe climate adaptation gaps and billions in economic losses

Germany is experiencing its hottest June on record, with temperatures reaching 40°C. The heatwave has exposed the country's inadequate climate adaptation, including poor building insulation, lack of air conditioning in hospitals and nursing homes, and disproportionate impacts on urban populations. A study by Allianz warns of up to €120 billion in economic losses from 2026-2030 due to reduced productivity, increased sick leave, and higher energy costs. The WHO reports over 200,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in the past four years. Local governments lack funding for adaptation measures, and experts call for heat to be treated as a permanent economic policy challenge.

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Germany is experiencing its hottest June on record, with temperatures reaching 40°C. The heatwave has exposed the country's inadequate climate adaptation, including poor building insulation, lack of air conditioning in hospitals and nursing homes, and disproportionate impacts on urban populations. A study by Allianz warns of up to €120 billion in economic losses from 2026-2030 due to reduced productivity, increased sick leave, and higher energy costs. The WHO reports over 200,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in the past four years. Local governments lack funding for adaptation measures, and experts call for heat to be treated as a permanent economic policy challenge.