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Global Briefing June 22

West Winning Wars, Turning on Itself Over How to End Them

The fighting in both of the world’s biggest wars finally began to stop this week: the US and Iran signed a 60-day roadmap at a Swiss resort, and a senior NATO official concluded Ukraine has cut Crimea off from Russian resupply. But the same days exposed a Western coalition splitting over the peace. António Costa’s secret outreach to Putin enraged Macron and Merz at a phone-free Brussels summit; Poland and Ukraine traded back wartime medals; and JD Vance told Israel that Trump is “your only ally left in the world.” Winning the war is turning out to be the easy part.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

France Arms Europe as Politics Turn Against EU

France spent the week as Europe’s indispensable power — hosting the G7 at Évian, extending its nuclear umbrella to eight allies, presiding over Eurosatory, the West’s biggest arms fair. Yet a new poll put the far right’s Jordan Bardella on 35 percent for 2027, fifteen points clear, on a platform of calling the EU “obsolete” and halving France’s payments to it — and a July 7 court ruling may leave his party with no eligible candidate at all.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Wins Deep War but Struggles to Hold Skies

Ukraine's bet on strangulation over storming paid off this week: a destroyed rail bridge and a regional state of emergency left occupied Crimea all but cut off, a NATO official said Russia can no longer resupply it, and drones hit refineries and defense plants deep inside Russia. On the front, Russia's offensive stalled — just 14 sq km gained in May. But the win has a ceiling: Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors a month and the Iran war has drained the US stockpile, even as Russian strikes killed civilians in Kharkiv, Sumy and Oleshky.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us48

Pentagon requests $80 billion supplemental for Iran war costs and other expenses

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran, now over 100 days old, has cost American households an average of $750 in additional expenses due to higher energy prices, inflation, and rising food and mortgage costs. The Iran war has cost approximately $25 billion so far, according to a Pentagon official. The Pentagon has now requested $80 billion in supplemental funding to cover war costs and other expenses, including non-defense priorities such as farm and disaster relief. Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg informed lawmakers of the request in phone calls this week. The request faces scrutiny amid ongoing voter anxiety over rising living costs and the financial burden of the conflict. A full supplemental request is expected in the coming days.

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The U.S.-Israel war on Iran, now over 100 days old, has cost American households an average of $750 in additional expenses due to higher energy prices, inflation, and rising food and mortgage costs. The Iran war has cost approximately $25 billion so far, according to a Pentagon official. The Pentagon has now requested $80 billion in supplemental funding to cover war costs and other expenses, including non-defense priorities such as farm and disaster relief. Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg informed lawmakers of the request in phone calls this week. The request faces scrutiny amid ongoing voter anxiety over rising living costs and the financial burden of the conflict. A full supplemental request is expected in the coming days.

ua48

Poland-Ukraine Diplomatic Crisis Escalates as Zelensky Returns Order of the White Eagle and Ukrainian Officials Renounce Polish Honors

Polish President Karol Nawrocki revoked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's Order of the White Eagle on June 19, 2026, citing Ukraine's decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which Poland holds responsible for WWII massacres of ethnic Poles. Zelensky returned the award by mail, and three former Ukrainian presidents—Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko, and Petro Poroshenko—along with senior officials including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, renounced their Polish state awards in solidarity. Polish PM Donald Tusk warned the dispute is a strategic mistake that benefits Russia. Zelensky accused Nawrocki of exploiting the issue for domestic political gain, comparing him to Viktor Orbán. Ukraine is weighing participation in the upcoming Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk. The crisis marks a significant deterioration in bilateral relations between key allies.

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Polish President Karol Nawrocki revoked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's Order of the White Eagle on June 19, 2026, citing Ukraine's decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which Poland holds responsible for WWII massacres of ethnic Poles. Zelensky returned the award by mail, and three former Ukrainian presidents—Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko, and Petro Poroshenko—along with senior officials including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, renounced their Polish state awards in solidarity. Polish PM Donald Tusk warned the dispute is a strategic mistake that benefits Russia. Zelensky accused Nawrocki of exploiting the issue for domestic political gain, comparing him to Viktor Orbán. Ukraine is weighing participation in the upcoming Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk. The crisis marks a significant deterioration in bilateral relations between key allies.

ua48

Ukraine's interdiction campaign leaves Russia unable to effectively supply Crimea, NATO official says

A senior NATO official stated that Ukraine's sustained campaign against Russian logistics has rendered Moscow unable to effectively supply Crimea, citing fuel shortages and disrupted transport links. Ukrainian forces have struck bridges in northern Crimea and caused bottlenecks at the Kerch Strait crossing, while improved drone technology and degraded Russian command and control—exacerbated by Russia's loss of Starlink access—have enabled deeper strikes. Separately, a Ukrainian commander from the 413th Unmanned Systems Regiment explained that Russia cannot solve its air-defense shortage over Crimea due to sanctions-induced microchip scarcity, leaving blind spots that Ukraine exploits with AI-guided drones. The campaign, dubbed a "logistics lockdown" by Ukraine's Defense Ministry, aims to systematically cut supply routes into the occupied peninsula.

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A senior NATO official stated that Ukraine's sustained campaign against Russian logistics has rendered Moscow unable to effectively supply Crimea, citing fuel shortages and disrupted transport links. Ukrainian forces have struck bridges in northern Crimea and caused bottlenecks at the Kerch Strait crossing, while improved drone technology and degraded Russian command and control—exacerbated by Russia's loss of Starlink access—have enabled deeper strikes. Separately, a Ukrainian commander from the 413th Unmanned Systems Regiment explained that Russia cannot solve its air-defense shortage over Crimea due to sanctions-induced microchip scarcity, leaving blind spots that Ukraine exploits with AI-guided drones. The campaign, dubbed a "logistics lockdown" by Ukraine's Defense Ministry, aims to systematically cut supply routes into the occupied peninsula.

gb48

Train driver killed, 100 injured in Bedford train crash

A train driver was killed and approximately 100 people were injured, with nine in critical condition, after a collision between a Corby-to-London service and a Nottingham service in Bedford. The incident is under investigation by British Transport Police.

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A train driver was killed and approximately 100 people were injured, with nine in critical condition, after a collision between a Corby-to-London service and a Nottingham service in Bedford. The incident is under investigation by British Transport Police.

ua48

Ukraine strikes Crimea infrastructure and Russian energy targets in coordinated long-range campaign

On June 21-22, 2026, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of coordinated long-range strikes targeting Russian military logistics, energy infrastructure, and air defense systems in occupied Crimea and deep inside Russia. In Crimea, strikes hit fuel terminals in Kerch and Port Kavkaz, the Tavriyska Thermal Power Plant, railway bridges, and S-400 and Pantsir air defense systems protecting the Kerch Bridge. In Russia, an upgraded Fire Point FP-1 drone with a 3,000 km range struck the Antipinsky oil refinery in Tyumen, over 2,000 km from the border. The attacks caused fires, power outages, and fuel rationing in Crimea, and forced the temporary closure of all four Moscow airports after 70-84 drones were intercepted near the capital. The campaign aims to degrade Russia's ability to supply and reinforce its forces in southern Ukraine and to reduce Russian oil revenues.

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On June 21-22, 2026, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of coordinated long-range strikes targeting Russian military logistics, energy infrastructure, and air defense systems in occupied Crimea and deep inside Russia. In Crimea, strikes hit fuel terminals in Kerch and Port Kavkaz, the Tavriyska Thermal Power Plant, railway bridges, and S-400 and Pantsir air defense systems protecting the Kerch Bridge. In Russia, an upgraded Fire Point FP-1 drone with a 3,000 km range struck the Antipinsky oil refinery in Tyumen, over 2,000 km from the border. The attacks caused fires, power outages, and fuel rationing in Crimea, and forced the temporary closure of all four Moscow airports after 70-84 drones were intercepted near the capital. The campaign aims to degrade Russia's ability to supply and reinforce its forces in southern Ukraine and to reduce Russian oil revenues.

gb48

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns, triggering Labour leadership contest

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour Party leader on June 22, 2026, after losing the support of his parliamentary party following poor local election results and a by-election victory by rival Andy Burnham. Starmer will remain as caretaker prime minister until a successor is chosen, with nominations opening July 9 and a new leader expected by September. Andy Burnham, who won the Makerfield by-election with 55% of the vote, is the frontrunner to succeed Starmer and become prime minister, with potential rivals Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner backing him. The resignation marks the seventh change of UK prime minister in a decade, highlighting prolonged political instability.

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour Party leader on June 22, 2026, after losing the support of his parliamentary party following poor local election results and a by-election victory by rival Andy Burnham. Starmer will remain as caretaker prime minister until a successor is chosen, with nominations opening July 9 and a new leader expected by September. Andy Burnham, who won the Makerfield by-election with 55% of the vote, is the frontrunner to succeed Starmer and become prime minister, with potential rivals Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner backing him. The resignation marks the seventh change of UK prime minister in a decade, highlighting prolonged political instability.

fr48

Europe faces second heatwave in a month with record temperatures and multiple deaths

Background: A heat dome over western Europe drove record-breaking May temperatures across the UK, France, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, with multiple deaths linked to the heatwave and UN climate chief Simon Stiell attributing the extreme heat to fossil fuel burning. New development: A second consecutive heatwave in less than a month has placed 49 of France's 96 mainland departments under red alert, with temperatures reaching 43°C in Bordeaux and 39°C in Paris. Two children aged 2 and 4 were found dead in a car in Carpentras, southern France, with heat suspected as the cause. Three elderly people died near Bordeaux due to heat-related causes, and 13 drowning deaths were reported in France. More than 1,300 schools were closed nationwide, and regional train services around Paris were reduced. Spain issued a red alert for the Basque country, with San Sebastian forecast to reach 40°C. Italy issued red alerts for 12 cities including Rome, Milan, and Florence. The UK Met Office issued a rare red warning for extreme heat in parts of England and Wales for Wednesday and Thursday. Belgium canceled some rush-hour trains due to the heat. Scientists attribute the recurring extreme heat to human-driven climate change.

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Background: A heat dome over western Europe drove record-breaking May temperatures across the UK, France, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, with multiple deaths linked to the heatwave and UN climate chief Simon Stiell attributing the extreme heat to fossil fuel burning. New development: A second consecutive heatwave in less than a month has placed 49 of France's 96 mainland departments under red alert, with temperatures reaching 43°C in Bordeaux and 39°C in Paris. Two children aged 2 and 4 were found dead in a car in Carpentras, southern France, with heat suspected as the cause. Three elderly people died near Bordeaux due to heat-related causes, and 13 drowning deaths were reported in France. More than 1,300 schools were closed nationwide, and regional train services around Paris were reduced. Spain issued a red alert for the Basque country, with San Sebastian forecast to reach 40°C. Italy issued red alerts for 12 cities including Rome, Milan, and Florence. The UK Met Office issued a rare red warning for extreme heat in parts of England and Wales for Wednesday and Thursday. Belgium canceled some rush-hour trains due to the heat. Scientists attribute the recurring extreme heat to human-driven climate change.

us46

Trump heads to Camp David as Iran deal negotiations progress and Lebanon conflict continues

President Trump is at Camp David for policy meetings as the 60-day Iran deal negotiation window progresses. A memorandum of understanding was signed at the Palace of Versailles, co-signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, providing for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance postponed a trip to Switzerland for further talks. The deal faces criticism from Republicans and Iran's Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah continue fighting despite a call for a ceasefire; Israeli strikes killed at least 47 in Lebanon, and four Israeli soldiers were killed. U.S. officials announced an immediate truce between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran has indicated it could walk away if Trump does not rein in Netanyahu.

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President Trump is at Camp David for policy meetings as the 60-day Iran deal negotiation window progresses. A memorandum of understanding was signed at the Palace of Versailles, co-signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, providing for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance postponed a trip to Switzerland for further talks. The deal faces criticism from Republicans and Iran's Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah continue fighting despite a call for a ceasefire; Israeli strikes killed at least 47 in Lebanon, and four Israeli soldiers were killed. U.S. officials announced an immediate truce between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran has indicated it could walk away if Trump does not rein in Netanyahu.

fr46

Macron and Merz Clash with EU Council President Over Putin Outreach

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized European Council President António Costa for establishing diplomatic contacts with Moscow, arguing the time is not right for negotiations with Putin. The dispute exposed divisions within the EU over engagement with Russia and who should represent Europe in future Ukraine peace talks. Costa's chief of staff held two phone calls with a senior Russian official close to Putin to open communication channels, but no substantive discussions occurred. Several EU leaders supported Macron and Merz's position, while others defended Costa's efforts. The issue is expected to remain on the agenda at an upcoming meeting in Berlin.

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French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized European Council President António Costa for establishing diplomatic contacts with Moscow, arguing the time is not right for negotiations with Putin. The dispute exposed divisions within the EU over engagement with Russia and who should represent Europe in future Ukraine peace talks. Costa's chief of staff held two phone calls with a senior Russian official close to Putin to open communication channels, but no substantive discussions occurred. Several EU leaders supported Macron and Merz's position, while others defended Costa's efforts. The issue is expected to remain on the agenda at an upcoming meeting in Berlin.

ua46

Zelensky gives Belarus one-week ultimatum to remove Russian drone relay equipment

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a one-week ultimatum to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on June 19, demanding the removal of Russian signal relay equipment installed on communication towers in Belarus's Gomel and Brest regions. Zelensky stated that the equipment is used to guide Russian Shahed drone strikes against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, particularly in Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Volyn oblasts, and warned that Ukrainian forces will destroy the systems if Belarus fails to act. The Kremlin dismissed the demand as an aggressive threat and interference in Belarusian sovereignty, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov announcing that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko will meet soon to discuss the issue. Zelensky also accused Belarus of supplying fuel to Russia's military, with gasoline exports rising thirteenfold from January to May compared to the previous year, and called on Lukashenko to stop this support. The ultimatum follows months of tensions over Belarus's role in supporting Russia's war effort, including hosting Russian military infrastructure and allowing drone launches from its territory. Lukashenko had previously apologized to Zelensky for harsh remarks and reiterated that Belarus would not enter the war.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a one-week ultimatum to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on June 19, demanding the removal of Russian signal relay equipment installed on communication towers in Belarus's Gomel and Brest regions. Zelensky stated that the equipment is used to guide Russian Shahed drone strikes against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, particularly in Zhytomyr, Rivne, and Volyn oblasts, and warned that Ukrainian forces will destroy the systems if Belarus fails to act. The Kremlin dismissed the demand as an aggressive threat and interference in Belarusian sovereignty, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov announcing that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko will meet soon to discuss the issue. Zelensky also accused Belarus of supplying fuel to Russia's military, with gasoline exports rising thirteenfold from January to May compared to the previous year, and called on Lukashenko to stop this support. The ultimatum follows months of tensions over Belarus's role in supporting Russia's war effort, including hosting Russian military infrastructure and allowing drone launches from its territory. Lukashenko had previously apologized to Zelensky for harsh remarks and reiterated that Belarus would not enter the war.