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26 June Briefing Read full brief

Ukraine is winning the deep war. Holding its skies is the harder fight.

Ukraine's bet on strangulation over storming paid off this week: a destroyed rail bridge and a regional state of emergency left occupied Crimea all but cut off, a NATO official said Russia can no longer resupply it, and drones hit refineries and defense plants deep inside Russia. On the front, Russia's offensive stalled — just 14 sq km gained in May. But the win has a ceiling: Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors a month and the Iran war has drained the US stockpile, even as Russian strikes killed civilians in Kharkiv, Sumy and Oleshky.

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Ukraine launches 40-day SBU operation, strikes Russian naval vessels and S-400 in Kerch, and hits Azot chemical plant in Tula region

President Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU influence operation to pressure Russia into ending the war. On June 25-26, SBU drones struck the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships and the Petropavlovsk ferry at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, causing large fires, and hit an S-400 air defense system covering the Kerch Strait. Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, causing damage and a fire at the plant and a nearby power station. Russia claimed to have intercepted 660 drones across multiple regions, including 47 over Moscow. The Kerch Strait crossing was closed, leading to a 15-km queue of vehicles trying to leave Crimea amid a fuel shortage.

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President Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU influence operation to pressure Russia into ending the war. On June 25-26, SBU drones struck the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships and the Petropavlovsk ferry at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, causing large fires, and hit an S-400 air defense system covering the Kerch Strait. Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, causing damage and a fire at the plant and a nearby power station. Russia claimed to have intercepted 660 drones across multiple regions, including 47 over Moscow. The Kerch Strait crossing was closed, leading to a 15-km queue of vehicles trying to leave Crimea amid a fuel shortage.

ua48

Russia declares state of emergency in occupied Crimea amid fuel and power crisis from Ukrainian strikes

Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol declared a regional state of emergency on June 26, 2026, citing a deepening fuel and electricity crisis caused by intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the peninsula's energy infrastructure, fuel depots, and supply routes. The emergency grants authorities powers to restrict movement, halt enterprises, and expedite resource allocation. The crisis follows weeks of Ukrainian strikes that have knocked out power plants, caused widespread blackouts, halted fuel sales to the public, and disrupted logistics, including rail and ferry connections to mainland Russia. The declaration underscores the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's military logistics in southern Ukraine.

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Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol declared a regional state of emergency on June 26, 2026, citing a deepening fuel and electricity crisis caused by intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the peninsula's energy infrastructure, fuel depots, and supply routes. The emergency grants authorities powers to restrict movement, halt enterprises, and expedite resource allocation. The crisis follows weeks of Ukrainian strikes that have knocked out power plants, caused widespread blackouts, halted fuel sales to the public, and disrupted logistics, including rail and ferry connections to mainland Russia. The declaration underscores the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's military logistics in southern Ukraine.

ua48

Zelenskyy says Ukraine's Crimea operation is carefully calculated and could force Russia to peace with Western help

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's strike campaign against occupied Crimea is 'carefully calculated' and that with the right Western support, Kyiv could quickly force Russia toward peace. He cited intelligence showing Russian assessments of deep strikes causing pain, including the destruction of 6,000 tonnes of ammunition near St. Petersburg and hits on missile-component plants. Russia is reportedly moving air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch bridge, exposing vulnerabilities elsewhere. The campaign has caused fuel shortages across more than 60 Russian regions and raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability to hold September elections.

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's strike campaign against occupied Crimea is 'carefully calculated' and that with the right Western support, Kyiv could quickly force Russia toward peace. He cited intelligence showing Russian assessments of deep strikes causing pain, including the destruction of 6,000 tonnes of ammunition near St. Petersburg and hits on missile-component plants. Russia is reportedly moving air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch bridge, exposing vulnerabilities elsewhere. The campaign has caused fuel shortages across more than 60 Russian regions and raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability to hold September elections.

ua48

Ukraine to form new brigades as Russia seeks to expand front by 160 km, Syrsky says

Background: Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi previously warned of a possible Russian operation from Belarus and reported that Ukrainian forces have for the first time surpassed Russian forces in daily offensive operations. Today: Syrsky announced plans to form new brigades to counter a potential Russian offensive aimed at expanding the active front line by approximately 160 kilometers, particularly from Belarus, stating that new units are needed as the front expands in width and depth. Russia maintains an advantage in manpower and weaponry, and Moscow is pressuring Belarus to allow more military activity from its territory. The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Kremlin wants Belarus to allow more Russian military activity, including drone launches against Ukraine, and is using financial pressure to push Minsk toward greater cooperation. Belarus reportedly disabled Russian drone-guidance signal repeaters near the Ukrainian border after President Zelensky warned Kyiv could strike them. Senior Russian officials reiterated Moscow's unwillingness to accept compromise peace terms such as a front line freeze, signaling continued commitment to occupying the entirety of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.

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Background: Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi previously warned of a possible Russian operation from Belarus and reported that Ukrainian forces have for the first time surpassed Russian forces in daily offensive operations. Today: Syrsky announced plans to form new brigades to counter a potential Russian offensive aimed at expanding the active front line by approximately 160 kilometers, particularly from Belarus, stating that new units are needed as the front expands in width and depth. Russia maintains an advantage in manpower and weaponry, and Moscow is pressuring Belarus to allow more military activity from its territory. The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Kremlin wants Belarus to allow more Russian military activity, including drone launches against Ukraine, and is using financial pressure to push Minsk toward greater cooperation. Belarus reportedly disabled Russian drone-guidance signal repeaters near the Ukrainian border after President Zelensky warned Kyiv could strike them. Senior Russian officials reiterated Moscow's unwillingness to accept compromise peace terms such as a front line freeze, signaling continued commitment to occupying the entirety of eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.

ua48

Russian hardliners urge Putin to abandon US talks and escalate Ukraine war, including nuclear option

Russian nationalist figures are calling on President Vladimir Putin to quit negotiations with the United States and escalate the war in Ukraine, including considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other targets. The Kremlin has so far resisted these demands but faces growing pressure from pro-war commentators who argue that diplomacy has failed. Analysts warn that nationalist pressure could raise public expectations for a broader military campaign and complicate future diplomatic decisions.

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Russian nationalist figures are calling on President Vladimir Putin to quit negotiations with the United States and escalate the war in Ukraine, including considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other targets. The Kremlin has so far resisted these demands but faces growing pressure from pro-war commentators who argue that diplomacy has failed. Analysts warn that nationalist pressure could raise public expectations for a broader military campaign and complicate future diplomatic decisions.

ua46

Moscow refinery knocked offline until 2027 after Ukrainian drone strikes

Background: On June 17-18, 2026, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, targeting the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya, causing fires and disrupting air travel. The refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft and located 15 km from the Kremlin, supplies up to 40% of Moscow's fuel market and around 70% of gasoline consumed in the capital region. Its processing capacity exceeds 12 million tons of oil per year; in 2024 it processed 11.6 million tons, producing 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel. Two consecutive strikes in mid-June damaged both main processing units, including the Euro+ installation worth 98 billion rubles, which was inaugurated by Vladimir Putin in 2020. The refinery will remain out of operation for at least six months, potentially until early 2027. The outage is straining Russia's fuel system, prompting export restrictions and potential imports from Kazakhstan.

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Background: On June 17-18, 2026, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow, targeting the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya, causing fires and disrupting air travel. The refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft and located 15 km from the Kremlin, supplies up to 40% of Moscow's fuel market and around 70% of gasoline consumed in the capital region. Its processing capacity exceeds 12 million tons of oil per year; in 2024 it processed 11.6 million tons, producing 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel. Two consecutive strikes in mid-June damaged both main processing units, including the Euro+ installation worth 98 billion rubles, which was inaugurated by Vladimir Putin in 2020. The refinery will remain out of operation for at least six months, potentially until early 2027. The outage is straining Russia's fuel system, prompting export restrictions and potential imports from Kazakhstan.

ua46

Russia intensifies bombing of Ukraine's Odesa grain ports, threatening one-third drop in exports

Russia has escalated strikes on Ukraine's Odesa ports, potentially cutting monthly grain exports from 6 million to 4 million tons, a one-third reduction worth nearly $900 million monthly in foreign earnings. The bombing targets Ukraine's largest hard currency source and threatens global food supplies to Africa and the Middle East. Private terminal operators have lost an estimated $1.5 billion since the invasion and cannot fund repairs alone. July is the danger window for heavier attacks as 30% of the new crop moves to the docks.

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Russia has escalated strikes on Ukraine's Odesa ports, potentially cutting monthly grain exports from 6 million to 4 million tons, a one-third reduction worth nearly $900 million monthly in foreign earnings. The bombing targets Ukraine's largest hard currency source and threatens global food supplies to Africa and the Middle East. Private terminal operators have lost an estimated $1.5 billion since the invasion and cannot fund repairs alone. July is the danger window for heavier attacks as 30% of the new crop moves to the docks.

ua46

Russia claims downing 660 Ukrainian drones in one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes; Ukraine intercepts 177 of 189 drones and three Iskander-M missiles

On June 25-26, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged large-scale overnight airstrikes. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 660 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions, including Moscow and occupied Crimea, in what is described as one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes. Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 177 of 189 drones and three of seven Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia. Both sides reported casualties and damage: one person injured in Tula, two in Kyiv, and three in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian strikes targeted energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and power cuts in Russia and Crimea. Russia denied seeking Belarusian war aid, while Ukraine accused Moscow of pressuring Belarus to join the conflict. Belarusian President Lukashenko stated Belarus has no intention of fighting Ukraine.

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On June 25-26, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged large-scale overnight airstrikes. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 660 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions, including Moscow and occupied Crimea, in what is described as one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes. Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 177 of 189 drones and three of seven Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia. Both sides reported casualties and damage: one person injured in Tula, two in Kyiv, and three in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian strikes targeted energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and power cuts in Russia and Crimea. Russia denied seeking Belarusian war aid, while Ukraine accused Moscow of pressuring Belarus to join the conflict. Belarusian President Lukashenko stated Belarus has no intention of fighting Ukraine.

Frequently Asked

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How is Ukraine isolating Crimea?
Ukraine destroyed the railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal near Rozdolne, burned cable ships and ferries at Kerch, and hit fuel infrastructure, cutting military cargo into Crimea by 71%.
Why is Ukraine struggling to defend its skies?
Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors per month to stop Russian missiles, but the US stockpile is depleted by defending Gulf bases against Iran, leaving a critical shortage.
What progress has Ukraine made on the ground?
Russia's spring-summer offensive gained only 14 square kilometers in May, and Ukrainian drones destroyed over 100 Russian artillery systems that month, blocking troop rotations.
What is the diplomatic impact of Ukraine's drone campaign?
The successes have reshaped diplomacy: Trump is warming to Kyiv, the US signed a G7 text backing Ukraine's territorial integrity, and Zelensky argues the war can end on Ukrainian terms with Western help.
How is Russia responding to Ukraine's gains?
Russia hardened its stance: Putin restated maximalist aims, Lavrov rejected a freeze on current lines, and hardliners urged tactical nuclear weapons, while Russia intensified grain port bombings.